Agentic AI for Digital Twin
Alexander Timms, Abigail Langbridge, et al.
AAAI 2025
Civilian protest is a complex phenomenon where large numbers of protestors participate in demonstrations. It involves multiple groups, various trigger events and social reinforcement where groups excite each other. We present a graphical generative model in which a baseline spontaneous process may undergo excitation due to external triggers, as well as inter-group contagion. We define a trigger-conditional multivariate Hawkes process, where excitation is conditional on the presence of active triggers. An arrival in this process corresponds to a batch of protestors, and random marks on the arrival serve to capture both the excitation-related parameters as well as the size of protest. The batch arrival intensity and the batch size, while mutually independent, exhibit respective history-dependence due to memory that is modeled in the excitation phenomena. We present a simulation algorithm for generating sample paths, and results estimating likelihood of large-scale protest on a realistic model.
Alexander Timms, Abigail Langbridge, et al.
AAAI 2025
Yan Liu, Xiaokang Chen, et al.
NeurIPS 2023
Buse Korkmaz, Rahul Nair, et al.
AAAI 2025
Byungchul Tak, Shu Tao, et al.
IC2E 2016